The Australian Dollar is drifting sideways to higher on Thursday as traders positions themselves ahead of the release of the Weekly U.S. Jobless Claims report at 12:30 GMT. Economists expect 4 million to 5 million or more workers filed for unemployment claims last week, but there are still millions of claims expected, and layoffs could easily double those in the financial crisis, economists said.
At 09:35 GMT, the AUD/USD is trading .6108, up 0033 or +0.53%.
Earlier in the session, NAB Quarterly Business Confidence came in at -11. This was much lower than the revised -2 released last month.
Daily Technical Analysis
The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. However, momentum is trending higher. A trade through .5510 will signal a resumption of the downtrend. A move through .6685 will change the main trend to up.
The minor trend is up. This is generating the upside momentum. A trade through .5870 will change the minor trend to down. Taking out the minor top at .6213 will indicate the buying is getting stronger.
The main range is .6685 to .5510. Its retracement zone at .6098 to .6236 is acting like resistance. It stopped the rally at .6213 on March 31.
The short-term range is .5510 to .6213. Its retracement zone at .5861 to .5778 is the next downside target.
Daily Technical Forecast
Based on the early price action and the current price at .6108, the direction of the AUD/USD the rest of the session on Thursday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the main 50% level at .6098.
A sustained move over .6098 will indicate the presence of buyers. If this creates enough upside momentum then look for the rally to possibly extend into the minor top at .6213, followed by the main Fibonacci level at .6236.
Overtaking and sustaining a rally over .6236 will indicate the buying is getting stronger. This could extend the rally into the resistance cluster at .6310 to .6325.
A sustained move under .6098 will signal the presence of sellers. This could drive the Aussie into .5965 and .5910.
If .5910 fails then look for the selling to extend into the short-term retracement zone at .5861 to .5778.