Here is what you need to know on Friday, November 1:
- Tension is mounting toward the US Non-Farm Payrolls, with the US Dollar consolidating its post-Fed losses. A gain of around 89,00 jobs in October. The low figure is partly due to the strike at General Motors, which may have shed more than 50,000 jobs. Bloomberg’s “whisper number” stands at 100K. The Unemployment Rate is set to rise to 3.9% and wage growth to increase by 0.3% monthly and 3% yearly.
See US Non-Farm Payrolls Preview: The trend remains the same
- Trade: High-level US and Chinese negotiators will hold a telephone call later today and try to push talks forward. While they have made progress on Phase One, reports suggest that China doubts that a broad agreement is possible with President Donald Trump. Officials in both Beijing and Washington are optimistic in public but skeptical in private.
- China: The Caixin Purchasing Managers’ Index for the manufacturing sector has risen to 51.7 points, better than expected and helping improve the market mood.
- US ISM Manufacturing PMI is published after the NFP, but is still of interest. Economists expect an increase from the lows of 47.8 points recorded in September. See US October Manufacturing PMI Preview: Waiting for the China deal
- Fed speak: Richard Clarida, Vice-Chair of the Federal Reserve, is one of three officials that will make public appearances today, and may provide more clarity on the central bank’s policies.
- UK politics: A batch of post-election announcement polls continued showing a significant lead of around 12% for Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s Conservatives. Prospects of a clear majority have underpinned the pound.
- Cryptocurrencies are stable with Bitcoin holding above $9,000.