A cautious tone prevailed across Asia this Tuesday, with full markets returning after a four-day Easter break, as traders digest the latest US-Iran geopolitical woes and a slew of comments from the Japanese officials heading into the Bank of Japan (BOJ) monetary policy meeting scheduled later this week.
Against a backdrop of mixed action in the Asian equities, the USD/JPY pair broke its recent range trade to the downside and hit fresh weekly lows at 111.65 before rebounding quickly to near 111.85 region following dovish remarks from a senior BOJ official Maeda and broad USD bounce. The AUD/USD pair fell below the 100’day SMA and reached multi-day lows near 0.7120 while the Kiwi traded on the back foot near 0.6670. The Canadian dollar was the strongest once again this session, mainly in response to the recent oil price rally, as the US called on to end all the waivers on the US sanctions against Iran’s energy sector.
Meanwhile, both the European currencies, the Euro and the GBP, traded modestly flat, with the Cable attempting a tepid bounce, with fresh UK cross-party Brexit talks back in focus.
Main Topics in Asia
Key Focus Ahead
Despite the major European markets returning after the long Easter holiday, the EUR macro calendar remains absolutely data-empty, leaving the local currencies at the mercy of the risk trends, USD dynamics and Brexit-related headlines.
The NA session remains relatively busy, with the Canadian wholesale sales data slated for release at 1230 GMT, followed by the US new homes sales report and Eurozone consumer confidence data due at 1400 GMT. Later in the American afternoon, oil traders will closely eye the API weekly fuel stocks data at 2030 GMT for fresh direction on the black gold.
EUR/USD could feel the pull of gravity today as the spread between the yields on the 10-year US and German government bond yields continue to rise in the EUR-negative manner.
The pair has been positive recently as investors expect Brexit deadlock to end soon as the UK members of the parliaments (MPs) return to their desks after nearly fortnight-long Easter recess.
Oil could rally back to test the 78.6% retracement near the psychologically-significant 70.00 handle in relatively short order.
Given the bullion’s sustained trading beneath important resistance, coupled with downward sloping 14-bar relative strength index (RSI), prices are likely to extend recent downturn towards next strong supports, like recent lows near $1271.
Analysts at National Australia Bank (NAB) offer a detailed preview of the Australian Q1 CPI data due on the cards tomorrow at 0130 GMT.