FX Price Action Talking Points:
- A flare of risk aversion began to show earlier today but has since pulled back.
- Many FX pairs remain in a state of congestion as driven by a lack of recent trend in the US Dollar with the Q3 close fast approaching.
- DailyFX Forecasts are published on a variety of markets such as Gold, the US Dollar or the Euro and are available from the DailyFX Trading Guides page. If you’re looking to improve your trading approach, check out Traits of Successful Traders. And if you’re looking for an introductory primer to the Forex market, check out our New to FX Guide.
We’re in the final week of Q3 and the S&P 500 has put in a bearish push below the 2980 level that had previously held support. As looked at last Thursday, given the posturing at highs combined with the lack of strength shown from bulls after the FOMC rate decision, short-side scenarios became of interest and that’s now started to show a bit of run. But, outside of that, many FX pairs remain congested with a lack of apparent trend potential as the Q4 open nears.
US Dollar Remains in Range as Q3 Draws to a Close
The past couple weeks have seen a couple of key drivers come to light and yet, the US Dollar has stuck within a range for most of that period. The ECB announced stimulus and the Federal Reserve cut rates for the second time this year. But, through it all, the Greenback has stuck to a relatively tight range formation as the end of Q3 approaches. Likely – markets are looking for a more concerted dovish shift at the Fed, which hasn’t yet happened. As discussed in the webinar, there are a couple of setups on either side of the scenario that could be attractive, and those will be looked at a little deeper in this piece and a little later in the archived video.
US Dollar Four-Hour Price Chart
EUR/USD – Beware the Traps
EUR/USD has been a tricky market for much of 2019 already, and this morning saw a bit of resistance develop off of the 1.1000 handle. This could keep focus on deeper potential resistance, taken from around 1.1025 and 1.1075 for short-side swing scenarios.
EUR/USD Four-Hour Price Chart
GBP/USD – Bullish Potential for Bearish-USD
For bearish USD-scenarios, the topside of GBP/USD remains attractive. The pair is currently testing resistance in the 1.2500-1.2523 zone, and this could be a tough area to chase from. In the webinar, I looked into entry methodology for bullish trend strategies.
GBP/USD Four-Hour Price Chart
USD/JPY Drives on Risk Aversion Flare
USD/JPY hit a big resistance level last week. Since then, the music has stopped for bulls. Price action in the pair is approaching a key level around the 107.00 handle, but should a bounce develop into a lower-high, the door remains open for longer-term short-side scenarios.
USD/JPY Four-Hour Price Chart
USD/CAD – Ready to Break?
For short-side USD-scenarios, I’ve been following USD/CAD. The pair has built into a range in the 1.3250-1.3300 zone on the chart, and sellers have pushed a bit-lower today. As discussed in the webinar, this wasn’t a one-sided scenario, however.
USD/CAD Four-Hour Price Chart
AUD/USD: Looking for the Lower-High
I’ve been following the short-side of AUD/USD for a little while now as one of the more attractive candidates for bullish-USD scenarios. That setup began to fill in nicely last week, with prices quickly running down to the targeted zone from .6760-.6783, and that area has since led to a bounce. As discussed in this week’s technical forecast on the Aussie, the scope for more remains, and a resistance zone resting from .6808-.6829 rests nearby, now confluent with a bearish trend-line as taken from last week’s highs.
AUD/USD Four-Hour Price Chart
To read more:
Are you looking for longer-term analysis on the U.S. Dollar? Our DailyFX Forecasts have a section for each major currency, and we also offer a plethora of resources on Gold or USD-pairs such as EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD. Traders can also stay up with near-term positioning via our IG Client Sentiment Indicator.
Forex Trading Resources
DailyFX offers an abundance of tools, indicators and resources to help traders. For those looking for trading ideas, our IG Client Sentiment shows the positioning of retail traders with actual live trades and positions. Our trading guides bring our DailyFX Quarterly Forecasts and our Top Trading Opportunities; and our real-time news feed has intra-day interactions from the DailyFX team. And if you’re looking for real-time analysis, our DailyFX Webinars offer numerous sessions each week in which you can see how and why we’re looking at what we’re looking at.
If you’re looking for educational information, our New to FX guide is there to help new(er) traders while our Traits of Successful Traders research is built to help sharpen the skill set by focusing on risk and trade management.
— Written by James Stanley, Strategist for DailyFX.com
Contact and follow James on Twitter: @JStanleyFX